The future's bright, the future's grey

Leaders have always needed to be able to build multiple skills. Communication, Strategy, Self-awareness, resilience…  the list goes on. Whatever a leader’s field, to be successful they need to show they are capable in many ways.

In recent years, there has been an increasing need to focus on a key ability often missing from the more classical leadership texts and theories. In an ever-shifting landscape, leaders need to be psychologically comfortable to work ‘in the grey’ – the space where despite a lack of predictability there is still a need to be decisive. The challenges this presents are often apparent from a strategic perspective, but the impact on leaders themselves is often overlooked.

All human beings like to be able to predict the future. It’s a core survival instinct. Our cavepeople ancestors needed to be able to look ahead and see a future where they had somewhere safe to sleep, eat, drink and pro-create. Whilst our professional needs might add some extra complexities to this mix, our brains may not have evolved as much as we’d like to think. They thrive when they feel safe. And uncertainty is a key threat to psychological safety.

But the last few years have taught us, beyond any doubt, that we cannot predict the future. The rise of AI technology, a global pandemic, surging costs… the landscapes (for both businesses and individuals alike) have presented challenges beyond what could have been expected. Whilst we might like to think that we’re able to keep our finger on the pulse of change, the reality is these changes have happened at both speed and scale. The VUCA concept, originally a military concept then adopted by many businesses who considered themselves to be operating in ‘volatile, uncertain, complexity and ambiguous’ markets has now, I believe, become the norm. So, what does a leader need to do to succeed in these times?

Firstly, a mindset shift is needed. Leaders need to find a way to thrive, and not simply survive, through multiple waves of change. ‘Keeping the lights on’ in the short term may be a strategy when major change hits but accepting the new status quo and adapting must soon follow. This can be particularly hard for heritage and traditional businesses, used to many years of stability. When faced with change letting go of the past may be even harder than adopting the future.     

Resilience may seem a natural next step, but when it comes to leadership I believe “change stamina” is a better way to frame it. Leaders need to build up their tolerance to change, learning from each iteration much like an athlete learns from each training session. The aim is never to train to the brink of exhaustion, but to grow in ability through concerted effort. The analogy does not end there either. Leaders should expose themselves to a wide range of change and surround themselves with a support crew who are experts in their field. Even an Olympic champion relies on a team of physios, nutritionists and trainers to get them to the top – what’s the leadership equivalent?

Whilst working in the grey requires an acceptance that you can never have a definitive answer on the best direction, a little bit of science can calm an uncertain mind. Investing in robust data driven decision making is a must for leaders. But traditional methods may no longer give a clear picture. Data should follow the principles of the 3Vs. It should be based on volume, variety and velocity. Whilst still no guarantee, this can help provide a more solid foundation for decisions. For big decisions, I’d suggest going one step further and inviting a ‘naïve stakeholder’ into the data analysis. Someone without pre-conceived ideas who can encourage the data to be viewed objectively and challenge bias.

‘Working in the grey’ will continue to rise with the rate of change. The future will not be led by those who simply weather storms but by those know how to navigate them well. Leaders need to be brave enough to adopt this mindset, creating a long-term change stamina as their new default mode, and underpin decisions with healthy critical thinking skills. Leaders who can, will take businesses forward into brighter, albeit greyer, futures.